Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for NC State-Marquette, Gonzaga-Purdue, Duke-Houston and Creighton-Tennessee.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all four NCAA Tournament games tonight.
7:09 p.m. ET: NC State vs Marquette (-7, 151)
The South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. NC State (24-14) is the 11-seed and just outlasted Oakland 79-73 in overtime in the second round. Similarly, Marquette (27-9) is the 2-seed and just edged Colorado 81-77 in the second round. This line opened with Marquette listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. Early sharp money leaned Marquette as we’ve seen the Golden Eagles rise from -6.5 to -7. Some shops are juicing up Marquette -7 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to -7.5. Marquette is receiving 47% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars, a low-key sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Marquette has the better offensive efficiency (19th vs 41st), better defensive efficiency (19th vs 75th) and better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 51%). Ken Pom has Marquette winning by 7-points (79-72), which is right on the spread and doesn’t provide any actionable value for either side. If this line rises to Marquette -7.5 it will be interesting to see if there is any sharp NC State +7.5 buyback. The Wolfpack are a combined 5-0 ATS as a dog across the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament. NC State has the better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 26%) and better free-throw shooting (74 %vs 71%) than Marquette.
7:39 p.m. ET: Gonzaga vs Purdue (-5.5, 154.5)
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Gonzaga (27-7) is the 5-seed and just crushed Kansas 89-68 in the second round. Similarly, Purdue (31-4) is the 1-seed and just demolished Utah State 106-67 in the second round. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. We saw early respected money lay the points with Purdue, driving the Boilermakers up from -4.5 to -5.5. The Boilermakers are the slight public play, receiving 56% of spread bets. However, now that we’ve reached Purdue -5.5 we’re starting to see sharp buyback on Gonzaga, with some shops juicing up Gonzaga +5.5 at -115 or -120, hinting at a drop back down to Purdue -5. Gonzaga has contrarian value, receiving only 44% of spread bets, and also features sharp game-day buyback in their direction. Gonzaga takes better care of the ball, ranking 22nd in turnovers compared to 133rd for Purdue. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by five points, which provides actionable value on Gonzaga plus the hook (+5.5). Gonzaga enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday while Purdue played on Sunday. Gonzaga is also a “dog who can score” system match, averaging roughly 85 PPG, thereby keeping pace and opening up the opportunity for a back-door cover.
9:39 p.m. ET: Duke vs Houston (-4, 134.5)
This South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Duke (26-8) is the 4-seed and just crushed James Madison 93-55 in the second round. On the flip side, Houston (32-4) is the 1-seed and just barely squeaked by Texas A&M 100-95 in overtime in the second round. This line opened with Houston listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The public is split right down the middle with 50% of spread bets on both sides. The line has also remained relatively stagnant at Houston -4. Anytime it rises up to Houston -4.5 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Duke +4.5, dropping the line back down to Houston -4. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (5th vs 14th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%), better three-point shooting (38% vs 35%) and better free-throw shooting (72% vs 69%). Ken Pom has Houston winning by three points (69-66), which provides actionable value on Duke plus the points, especially if you can shop around and/or wait for the hook (+4.5). Duke is also a “dog who can score” system match averaging nearly 80 PPG, thereby keeping pace or opening up the opportunity for a back-door cover.
9:59 p.m. ET: Creighton vs Tennessee (-3.5, 144)
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Creighton (25-9) is the 3-seed and just outlasted Oregon 86-73 in double overtime in the second round. Similarly, Tennessee (26-8) is the 2-seed and just edged Texas 62-58 in the second round. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen Tennessee move from -2.5 to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. However, not all tickets are created equally, as some come from wiseguys while others come from Average Joes. Based on the line move, it’s safe to deduce that pros are laying the points with Tennessee. The Volunteers are receiving 54% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a modest “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. Tennessee has the better defensive efficiency (3rd vs 23rd), better offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 26%) and forces more turnovers (68th vs 362nd). Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by two points (73-71). Those looking to follow the sharp Vols move but wary of laying the points in what might be a one-possession game could instead play Tennessee on the moneyline.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all four NCAA Tournament games tonight.
7:09 p.m. ET: NC State vs Marquette (-7, 151)
The South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. NC State (24-14) is the 11-seed and just outlasted Oakland 79-73 in overtime in the second round. Similarly, Marquette (27-9) is the 2-seed and just edged Colorado 81-77 in the second round. This line opened with Marquette listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. Early sharp money leaned Marquette as we’ve seen the Golden Eagles rise from -6.5 to -7. Some shops are juicing up Marquette -7 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to -7.5. Marquette is receiving 47% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars, a low-key sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Marquette has the better offensive efficiency (19th vs 41st), better defensive efficiency (19th vs 75th) and better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 51%). Ken Pom has Marquette winning by 7-points (79-72), which is right on the spread and doesn’t provide any actionable value for either side. If this line rises to Marquette -7.5 it will be interesting to see if there is any sharp NC State +7.5 buyback. The Wolfpack are a combined 5-0 ATS as a dog across the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament. NC State has the better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 26%) and better free-throw shooting (74 %vs 71%) than Marquette.
7:39 p.m. ET: Gonzaga vs Purdue (-5.5, 154.5)
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Gonzaga (27-7) is the 5-seed and just crushed Kansas 89-68 in the second round. Similarly, Purdue (31-4) is the 1-seed and just demolished Utah State 106-67 in the second round. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. We saw early respected money lay the points with Purdue, driving the Boilermakers up from -4.5 to -5.5. The Boilermakers are the slight public play, receiving 56% of spread bets. However, now that we’ve reached Purdue -5.5 we’re starting to see sharp buyback on Gonzaga, with some shops juicing up Gonzaga +5.5 at -115 or -120, hinting at a drop back down to Purdue -5. Gonzaga has contrarian value, receiving only 44% of spread bets, and also features sharp game-day buyback in their direction. Gonzaga takes better care of the ball, ranking 22nd in turnovers compared to 133rd for Purdue. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by five points, which provides actionable value on Gonzaga plus the hook (+5.5). Gonzaga enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday while Purdue played on Sunday. Gonzaga is also a “dog who can score” system match, averaging roughly 85 PPG, thereby keeping pace and opening up the opportunity for a back-door cover.
9:39 p.m. ET: Duke vs Houston (-4, 134.5)
This South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Duke (26-8) is the 4-seed and just crushed James Madison 93-55 in the second round. On the flip side, Houston (32-4) is the 1-seed and just barely squeaked by Texas A&M 100-95 in overtime in the second round. This line opened with Houston listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The public is split right down the middle with 50% of spread bets on both sides. The line has also remained relatively stagnant at Houston -4. Anytime it rises up to Houston -4.5 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Duke +4.5, dropping the line back down to Houston -4. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (5th vs 14th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%), better three-point shooting (38% vs 35%) and better free-throw shooting (72% vs 69%). Ken Pom has Houston winning by three points (69-66), which provides actionable value on Duke plus the points, especially if you can shop around and/or wait for the hook (+4.5). Duke is also a “dog who can score” system match averaging nearly 80 PPG, thereby keeping pace or opening up the opportunity for a back-door cover.
9:59 p.m. ET: Creighton vs Tennessee (-3.5, 144)
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Creighton (25-9) is the 3-seed and just outlasted Oregon 86-73 in double overtime in the second round. Similarly, Tennessee (26-8) is the 2-seed and just edged Texas 62-58 in the second round. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen Tennessee move from -2.5 to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. However, not all tickets are created equally, as some come from wiseguys while others come from Average Joes. Based on the line move, it’s safe to deduce that pros are laying the points with Tennessee. The Volunteers are receiving 54% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a modest “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. Tennessee has the better defensive efficiency (3rd vs 23rd), better offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 26%) and forces more turnovers (68th vs 362nd). Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by two points (73-71). Those looking to follow the sharp Vols move but wary of laying the points in what might be a one-possession game could instead play Tennessee on the moneyline.
